Bear Market Probability Index

Summary Model Data
Date Percentage
02-19590.14703915313728
03-19590.15194514515256
04-19590.13895332049676
05-19590.17200665348271
06-19590.17460147039611
07-19590.17509932749066
08-19590.17981537457697
09-19590.20891950070716
10-19590.21077004614417
11-19590.19761895501503
12-19590.19549669802642
01-19600.21126945378521
02-19600.21958958984304
03-19600.22507349641524
04-19600.21163705891003
05-19600.17859523391411
06-19600.1889240427331
07-19600.17307146015231
08-19600.14207029893186
09-19600.12909492218977
10-19600.12563117814439
11-19600.10287792215205
12-19600.079661929105593
01-19610.13871062572243
02-19610.10771843661435
03-19610.082141609054676
04-19610.10642566692758
05-19610.090368199426908
06-19610.068664415105319
07-19610.098999313905926
08-19610.094910279621009
09-19610.11540870873042
10-19610.13616121871477
11-19610.11483087940148
12-19610.10508781657561
01-19620.11765184089582
02-19620.15397792363689
03-19620.15360423083532
04-19620.12299072789294
05-19620.14240736897821
06-19620.1397574010936
07-19620.15735411696934
08-19620.15502995367162
09-19620.15789365887046
10-19620.16171352215501
11-19620.1646443769392
12-19620.16573651687972
01-19630.16669389781262
02-19630.16438428799417
03-19630.15559241974548
04-19630.16605126250014
05-19630.16151307361869
06-19630.1621122195701
07-19630.20639459543168
08-19630.19848706442815
09-19630.19794884731648
10-19630.19523192597167
11-19630.18526578266993
12-19630.19132450951216
01-19640.19286654032225
02-19640.18320680943688
03-19640.18597982935909
04-19640.19086722339813
05-19640.19316487913933
06-19640.18446488479681
07-19640.19162634101902
08-19640.18638738207179
09-19640.17927558093559
10-19640.19661385833149
11-19640.2274047412048
12-19640.23186281439795
01-19650.23869831184236
02-19650.24556633051014
03-19650.25259107556065
04-19650.25262228865404
05-19650.24556633051014
06-19650.25259107556065
07-19650.25039378032617
08-19650.23369310112964
09-19650.23518781070588
10-19650.22753891378322
11-19650.23384825991482
12-19650.24515893366651
01-19660.24205453868933
02-19660.24323502704781
03-19660.2573225323957
04-19660.2795915020758
05-19660.30828851124536
06-19660.29698571637267
07-19660.29909653652857
08-19660.28932209638624
09-19660.32618788746574
10-19660.33418987022157
11-19660.33381657924506
12-19660.31056173295318
01-19670.31135816932192
02-19670.26489959955524
03-19670.21049688762066
04-19670.18305164945305
05-19670.17606386496498
06-19670.15683137413881
07-19670.15811936096783
08-19670.1626222786554
09-19670.1488626741108
10-19670.15188957968388
11-19670.17550401639014
12-19670.19029410074878
01-19680.19619404873629
02-19680.20942243846958
03-19680.27748747876405
04-19680.28842121220223
05-19680.30015514964817
06-19680.3203720437633
07-19680.33177963895522
08-19680.29863995720747
09-19680.29895157282923
10-19680.27736483235813
11-19680.26518528572922
12-19680.28964969199084
01-19690.30409901291211
02-19690.3100615712632
03-19690.39314043095217
04-19690.53914903673944
05-19690.52269590526739
06-19690.45699737210581
07-19690.54095052260997
08-19690.45419698084935
09-19690.44556935515102
10-19690.42277614711408
11-19690.37242646637375
12-19690.35856640407237
01-19700.423439385388
02-19700.32228006574899
03-19700.3213281179668
04-19700.26806242374352
05-19700.25038183398733
06-19700.24894295143979
07-19700.208600437878
08-19700.19777842621919
09-19700.19569197765305
10-19700.18538089995304
11-19700.16719636522368
12-19700.13643313613556
01-19710.12275926761426
02-19710.13313644963724
03-19710.14998087714031
04-19710.15378945385849
05-19710.16269872156278
06-19710.17472935937335
07-19710.19535849891743
08-19710.21975597129486
09-19710.20821540453596
10-19710.19540135574802
11-19710.14600139581664
12-19710.11801200704515
01-19720.10792392451441
02-19720.12810375786774
03-19720.13917400785185
04-19720.14555228879727
05-19720.15543047809026
06-19720.16002030930336
07-19720.16924105921554
08-19720.15965062628703
09-19720.17087280391268
10-19720.18064603164782
11-19720.19267264369133
12-19720.22670356378369
01-19730.26133708421888
02-19730.29748441246839
03-19730.30386978381641
04-19730.35293238638845
05-19730.41564096087938
06-19730.62867084610851
07-19730.58635138579612
08-19730.69932326587971
09-19730.64594505537019
10-19730.66417793935386
11-19730.64822479213136
12-19730.54764063397076
01-19740.46341892867981
02-19740.47032549394624
03-19740.56646503257042
04-19740.6661735973418
05-19740.77595001455012
06-19740.87331712488187
07-19740.66812106953113
08-19740.57762342009873
09-19740.45040793482977
10-19740.41566751800161
11-19740.35533326798184
12-19740.24122995510162
01-19750.19512441462929
02-19750.15141998246309
03-19750.13739572465895
04-19750.13230366404146
05-19750.14830139749541
06-19750.16391393719025
07-19750.15573797692125
08-19750.15861300445008
09-19750.15091398879742
10-19750.1325102537326
11-19750.13291001733056
12-19750.12766602812261
01-19760.12358378621314
02-19760.12691283871605
03-19760.12974673977128
04-19760.13807983845237
05-19760.14573131169447
06-19760.14040032607307
07-19760.14113266495678
08-19760.14416828272732
09-19760.14020904766224
10-19760.14063403231502
11-19760.14004295231858
12-19760.13020530766729
01-19770.12867816344154
02-19770.1275397828876
03-19770.13081194807011
04-19770.15156014468448
05-19770.15866665554159
06-19770.15836662243045
07-19770.17763677954944
08-19770.19208204592222
09-19770.20145488527162
10-19770.20083888297826
11-19770.19853255144964
12-19770.19408482323798
01-19780.19510472062538
02-19780.19518015585791
03-19780.19552003750074
04-19780.21011218534476
05-19780.21732836580183
06-19780.21976754961954
07-19780.24380648908531
08-19780.26794058861318
09-19780.28624452303133
10-19780.32875786634141
11-19780.33220557291772
12-19780.32796796932066
01-19790.32726857307546
02-19790.32781908339527
03-19790.31780352106061
04-19790.32824431162353
05-19790.36003104628384
06-19790.37049676105248
07-19790.40107156112622
08-19790.4114725458216
09-19790.50614048184647
10-19790.4212421408218
11-19790.49644268017749
12-19790.45562759867571
01-19800.34892459372066
02-19800.51666975704156
03-19800.71719210204049
04-19800.31055132120162
05-19800.24984249127423
06-19800.20991858364971
07-19800.20363685348371
08-19800.23823666340779
09-19800.31767892133607
10-19800.43117647298055
11-19800.64341514847859
12-19800.69628985655961
01-19810.39820990533743
02-19810.33688604518912
03-19810.35606827301128
04-19810.48495448976259
05-19810.58536420270137
06-19810.50287202120508
07-19810.38706467931336
08-19810.28560479784766
09-19810.26363395800086
10-19810.26292758184992
11-19810.21874687270735
12-19810.22071939691986
01-19820.27912327536636
02-19820.29896521929492
03-19820.30967831236163
04-19820.30000864604683
05-19820.26058520451526
06-19820.21914267679411
07-19820.16989376531044
08-19820.19169218598231
09-19820.21374049343426
10-19820.20620417694057
11-19820.1969884998392
12-19820.18953674657926
01-19830.17641971107996
02-19830.19129053353932
03-19830.19581502992994
04-19830.19013473562622
05-19830.18871482729044
06-19830.18711213272248
07-19830.18101298346349
08-19830.18260987230012
09-19830.18641039238486
10-19830.1782305670264
11-19830.17877569694634
12-19830.18555881904279
01-19840.18217637197553
02-19840.18016109788226
03-19840.18391324157694
04-19840.16811191608795
05-19840.18424623069473
06-19840.19364374649055
07-19840.22471739753055
08-19840.21916321919742
09-19840.18643105874657
10-19840.18402768834821
11-19840.15504599247496
12-19840.15659843497684
01-19850.15807309403694
02-19850.15344740953257
03-19850.15347597164459
04-19850.15685184400029
05-19850.15890430752962
06-19850.16636368546027
07-19850.16651434082628
08-19850.16617737462002
09-19850.17172227748759
10-19850.18701289956223
11-19850.21505901734682
12-19850.21192804165213
01-19860.21955402311199
02-19860.24645668309103
03-19860.24454955736301
04-19860.21307873573878
05-19860.21253594669451
06-19860.21745206977979
07-19860.20151832752724
08-19860.17528625038918
09-19860.17415482434162
10-19860.1907796784522
11-19860.25162007530399
12-19860.22164305076106
01-19870.19395729939368
02-19870.1955662909156
03-19870.17656760740502
04-19870.17703287219361
05-19870.1790191216261
06-19870.17118558805219
07-19870.16767536598613
08-19870.16707406174368
09-19870.16684283667819
10-19870.16334826590008
11-19870.16269597294072
12-19870.17430221633967
01-19880.17911581762534
02-19880.17373707536111
03-19880.1743265213875
04-19880.17162148322891
05-19880.19416997191216
06-19880.19946747953533
07-19880.20332999936791
08-19880.22334593078361
09-19880.23766110822623
10-19880.23238669636776
11-19880.24652584789607
12-19880.26780137142332
01-19890.27718262699337
02-19890.29499476434359
03-19890.30651560783114
04-19890.32836957483327
05-19890.35733247730949
06-19890.35812555452005
07-19890.32918968767842
08-19890.32463833496562
09-19890.32607889566738
10-19890.31532821186947
11-19890.31007874668763
12-19890.26734367797619
01-19900.25210777366027
02-19900.24767112837073
03-19900.23602025301965
04-19900.23325473112491
05-19900.25449670055218
06-19900.24683928377465
07-19900.2311037149081
08-19900.22800980505602
09-19900.23152018823889
10-19900.2319009516136
11-19900.22010466428256
12-19900.19896320369337
01-19910.17724154208038
02-19910.16320107048084
03-19910.15701065593539
04-19910.15128433468261
05-19910.15019493294481
06-19910.14761597960283
07-19910.1513506824553
08-19910.15015295883077
09-19910.14422462854289
10-19910.13245906153571
11-19910.12659309670814
12-19910.11469251913943
01-19920.11039942615534
02-19920.10526372017811
03-19920.099668462392929
04-19920.10312668609823
05-19920.10331840332721
06-19920.095401950363759
07-19920.10005883493351
08-19920.10020810561047
09-19920.094567227442586
10-19920.091023048263417
11-19920.087969787746201
12-19920.092345095021269
01-19930.096988649855204
02-19930.10244612903209
03-19930.099140163574463
04-19930.099302236244579
05-19930.10181365002055
06-19930.10503206579384
07-19930.10637723588225
08-19930.11540034825271
09-19930.11205015147697
10-19930.1052875576312
11-19930.10237337660168
12-19930.10577580805972
01-19940.10859135522612
02-19940.10284077412016
03-19940.10194572665354
04-19940.11152513391402
05-19940.12037154517219
06-19940.11696453646225
07-19940.1247967751678
08-19940.12886728014776
09-19940.12421812941394
10-19940.13672864566612
11-19940.14590928793725
12-19940.14967488890521
01-19950.17594991957968
02-19950.18981213755108
03-19950.20007877173803
04-19950.22088936112006
05-19950.25190852462659
06-19950.23220563250308
07-19950.21137519224573
08-19950.23404360091026
09-19950.24266301673808
10-19950.25474097857513
11-19950.25608856687679
12-19950.25778902311462
01-19960.21737427973653
02-19960.19610304744521
03-19960.17925202159718
04-19960.17076091083745
05-19960.16582222877484
06-19960.17369742468322
07-19960.17373831867023
08-19960.17026643179817
09-19960.17946881947333
10-19960.19988350434557
11-19960.19330142993775
12-19960.17784025502125
01-19970.18161273668044
02-19970.18062718765913
03-19970.17849203559385
04-19970.18573563640726
05-19970.19998373329394
06-19970.21265497330741
07-19970.20924437110561
08-19970.21463893942534
09-19970.22338132998381
10-19970.23558390860646
11-19970.23930543540771
12-19970.26796559768038
01-19980.26043930152216
02-19980.25152551982262
03-19980.24885593351941
04-19980.25152551982262
05-19980.27186228393423
06-19980.27388083609978
07-19980.28753713203646
08-19980.35361558073578
09-19980.33609002595396
10-19980.266057539
11-19980.26947637352085
12-19980.25618853510343
01-19990.24187106524835
02-19990.22678925439397
03-19990.2247010647123
04-19990.19954209973537
05-19990.1810233003449
06-19990.20204256708153
07-19990.19872273085653
08-19990.21024637172029
09-19990.19774431557364
10-19990.21754283571604
11-19990.1949549221435
12-19990.18523489458934
01-20000.20902266836281
02-20000.23358732300308
03-20000.26870802858375
04-20000.2524872226621
05-20000.30567489540544
06-20000.31201451450855
07-20000.33331240015704
08-20000.33931460493541
09-20000.34594101895194
10-20000.34859775929085
11-20000.40860789532796
12-20000.36282844873956
01-20010.30927040867077
02-20010.31501186290523
03-20010.23328364604342
04-20010.17199642370973
05-20010.16232104946711
06-20010.15225040844375
07-20010.15680359991121
08-20010.13266492706783
09-20010.10868749412073
10-20010.090969321083204
11-20010.076753848747632
12-20010.074732668985514
01-20020.076300153471357
02-20020.072576940832183
03-20020.073709580292265
04-20020.074160577032912
05-20020.076384135099626
06-20020.078845423982238
07-20020.084334761462561
08-20020.091430464597651
09-20020.090082396187336
10-20020.073016935410056
11-20020.069885404255237
12-20020.069683307295004
01-20030.071953765821416
02-20030.072636056657596
03-20030.071291161536521
04-20030.076096097810621
05-20030.078019611907946
06-20030.062915692443795
07-20030.060129410789205
08-20030.06075927949791
09-20030.06062219825128
10-20030.060265494801083
11-20030.059887531513869
12-20030.061310985516825
01-20040.06213429575026
02-20040.063841358314738
03-20040.059934196135113
04-20040.057713428836268
05-20040.0584376178364
06-20040.06625779210556
07-20040.073463773143122
08-20040.081484105868961
09-20040.087638075840133
10-20040.092867127021379
11-20040.10192245093338
12-20040.10775444622069
01-20050.12058579100359
02-20050.11716157416821
03-20050.13108229947672
04-20050.15381008502947
05-20050.16494904541333
06-20050.17159635183395
07-20050.18644972195004
08-20050.20207244005906
09-20050.19635525380915
10-20050.20995282590054
11-20050.23179865118954
12-20050.25097981272195
01-20060.25698405244721
02-20060.2519136797299
03-20060.24571285502582
04-20060.24906370225731
05-20060.25395270668791
06-20060.28200856287682
07-20060.30887712531251
08-20060.33161363282761
09-20060.33010388095975
10-20060.35074951354191
11-20060.35606827301128
12-20060.32564861047192
01-20070.33297907190139
02-20070.35908261279161
03-20070.33621873755017
04-20070.32712150037667
05-20070.28197644060175
06-20070.29479183277417
07-20070.30835024072731
08-20070.31935953318354
09-20070.29408206416916
10-20070.31258532488975
11-20070.28461959635778
12-20070.29564740202037
01-20080.17745798762439
02-20080.15967534836922
03-20080.12531711577323
04-20080.10185976225982
05-20080.097672811241553
06-20080.10015001441335
07-20080.10259211081703
08-20080.098166694131905
09-20080.063019542985585
10-20080.045344218072498
11-20080.039792057168129
12-20080.038949930384552
01-20090.041128054325994
02-20090.039500620038794
03-20090.037878059354013
04-20090.038331713242386
05-20090.038555620601213
06-20090.037067583170023
07-20090.037018712134512
08-20090.036960052406069
09-20090.035819109451822
10-20090.035805417586988
11-20090.035559481938439
12-20090.035039536884107
01-20100.035797030964948
02-20100.036800797278781
03-20100.037975400417905
04-20100.038816033381283
05-20100.038529702053564
06-20100.038985405799938
07-20100.040332878127567
08-20100.040501231212819
09-20100.040894183129617
10-20100.040138661019134
11-20100.038331713242386
12-20100.037742671870789
01-20110.037034913690728
02-20110.036560671928935
03-20110.03496152596765
04-20110.034893844721578
05-20110.035106971637208
06-20110.034221080994527
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